The year has just started trying to do some "prediction" in the market for bonds.
begin addressing the issue of interest rates.
As you know last year we have seen a rise in interest rates (we had planned for some time), despite the ECB had kept them still.
This year the Central Bank should gradually begin to raise them in this regard the governor Trichet hinted that might tweak the upside in the coming months, then just look at inflation to 2.2%, thus already above the target of 2%, according to us will be going up (even on what we have warned several times in the past).
Therefore it is good to continue to not invest in fixed rate long-term (only makes sense for broadcasters in the risk premium can be reduced), focus on inflation-linked, many of whom are still at attractive prices, obviously related to bond ' Euribor and some CMS.
The issue of sovereign debt of the euro area peripheral countries continue to attract the attention of investors because it is an issue not easily resolved, the issue dell'Eurobond idea seems interesting, we believe that in an emergency Germany approved; however it is hoped that the Euro will devalue, because a strong euro would the end of the single currency.
must also pay attention to government of the countries of Eastern Europe.
For banks, the European Commission wants to pay to the holders of senior bonds any future banking crisis, should it pass the risk premium would increase significantly, so caution in investing in bank bonds on long maturities, and are to be avoided subordinated bank bonds of issuers fragile.
In conclusion summarizing the thought rates and inflation, down €.
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